THE EARLY CALL: Jefferson Re-elected

It appears that the shot in the arm from white boxes in Jefferson Parish did not materialize for Representative Karen Carter as Bill Jefferson has been re-elected to Congress in the Second District.

THE EARLY CALL: Cassidy Wins

In a senate district that is largely homogenous, it appears that Dr. William Cassidy has won in the primary a seat in the state Senate.

Precinct numbers indicate strong polling across the district with the sitting Representative trailing in most boxes.

Republicans stay home in Jefferson Parish

Key areas where Republican Joe Lavigne carried are in Jefferson's corner in Jefferson Parish.

The vote totals show a marked boycott by citizens uninterested in voting for either candidate.

Bill Jefferson had a large margin in Jefferson but few votes; Orleans to determine outcome.

(power outage at last work station caused this late report)

Jefferson WIns Absentee in Jeff.

Bill Jefferson carried the Jefferson Parish absentee 205 to 152. As Republican Joe Lavigne won the early voting in the primary, it is safe to assume that Republicans and conservatives heeded Sheriff Harry Lee's advice and stayed home.

Cassidy polling strong with 20% of the precincts in

We could have an upset in Baton Rouge and a possible omen of things to come for future legislators looking to move to another chamber on the advent of term limits.

Dr. Cassidy has maintained his absentee margin over Daniel with a fifth of the numbers in.

Cassidy has strong lead in absentee voting

In the BR Senate race, Dr. Bill Cassidy jumped to a quick lead on absentee voting, with a two-thirds share of the vote.

Generally absentee voting is considered an indication of the overall result of the race, though it should be noted that the last week of the campaign involved extremely personal and negative charges against State Rep. William Daniel that might have caused a backlash.

The Polls Are CLOSED!

Polls in Louisiana have closed. In Baton Rouge there is a contentious Senate election for the remaining time on newly elected Secretary of State Jay Dardenne's unexpired senate term.

The big one with national implications is Congressman Bill Jefferson's re-election bid against State Representative Karen Carter.

While both candidates are black Democrats, the opponents attempted to differentiate themselves by their biggest weaknesses: Carter's liberal voting record on social issues while Jefferson had to contend with bribery allegations and an investigation that recovered 90k of his "take" from his freezer.

Will post the first report at 8:30 PM CST.

The Senate: Who's Got It? Probably the Dems.

On Tuesday evening, this site called the Virginia US Senate election for incumbent George Allen based upon a significant lead and over 3/4's of the vote accounted for.

Allen's victory, combined with a win by Bob Corker in Tennessee, would have locked control of the US Senate for the Democrats.

However the tight margins in Virginia and in Montana, where Conrad Burns made a spirited comeback in a race that was considered decided by most outlets, likely means that we are about to go into "overtime", that is lawyers from both parties are on the ground as this update is being penned to argue over which votes should be counted and pursuing any irregularities that would taint the contest, not to mention a series of recounts.

As it stands now, Allen is trailing Democrat Jim Webb by 7,000 votes with a handful of precincts outstanding. In Montana, Burns is running behind Democrat Jon Tester by a shade under 2,000.

Recounts were a major factor in determining George W. Bush's victory in Florida in 2000, but the most relevant recount as far as control of the US Senate goes has to do with the recount in the Washington State gubernatorial election in 2004 where the Republican had the lead in the first tabulation and after the initial recount. However, the Democrat won after a second recount thanks in part to heavily Democratic King County's "changed" returns.

The point is Washington State provides recent precedent that a recount in a close election can tip the scales in an election.

However, as Republicans are less bold than Democrats in the art of "politicking", the money is on the Democrats holding on to both seats and thus taking control of the Senate.

2nd District Leans Jefferson, Carter

The Second Congressional district appears to head for a runoff between incumbent Bill Jefferson and State Representative Karen Carter.

A number of white precincts are still not accounted for, but Republican candidate Joe Lavigne would need to run the tables to overcome a likely third place finish.

THE EARLY CALL: Dems Take House!

While the Democrats may capture the House tonight, they won't get the 30 seats they hoped for.

Republicans are locked in a number of 4% races across the country, but by looking at a number of districts across the country where the Democrats are leaning, their take over of the House is virtually assured.

Their majority will marginal.

THE EARLY CALL: GOP Keeps Senate

Based upon Allen's growing lead (at 15k with 90% in) in Virginia and Corker's majority in Tennessee, the Republicans will retain a majority in the US Senate at no worse than 50-50 with Conrad Burns's Montana race and Jim Talent's Missouri race still out.

With a 50-50 tie, Vice-President Dick Cheney's tie breaker will determine the majority.

C. Bass in NH Lost

Republican Congressman Charlie Bass of New Hampshire will likely lose re-election. With 60% in, the GOP incumbent is trailing by over 10k votes in what was once the last of the Republican New England states.

Bass was projected to lose re-election this several days before the election.

LA 3rd District: Melancon To Win Outright

Judging by returns from the western part of the 3rd district, it appears that Democratic incumbent Charlie Melancon will win re-election without going to a December runoff. Iberia Parish Republican State Senator Craig Romero has underperformed in St. Martin and St. Mary parishes.

Allen Re-elected in Virginia

With almost 3/4's of the vote in, George Allen is being projected as the winner by "theearlycall". The incumbent is leading by two points or 30,000+ votes.

GOP's Davis Regains Lead in KY Race

Fourth District Republican incumbent Geoff Davis has regained his lead for re-election in Kentucky. With almost one third in, he is leading his Democratic opponent by 8 points. With Northup's loss, Davis's re-election is a must-win.

Dispensing with the Obvious

Republican US Senate incumbents Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and Mike DeWine of Ohio are projected to lose their bids for re-election.

Ohio River Valley looks bad for GOP

As expected, the Ohio River Valley is drowning Republican hopes of keeping the Congress.

In Indiana, Republican candidates are trailing in the 2nd and 9th districts and have lost the Hostetler seat in the 8th, the latter being expected and part of the "Doomed Dozen."

KY's 4th district race is tightening as well. A sweep in the five hot races in IN and KY would not bode well for Republicans.

CNN: Dems to Keep NJ Senate seat

In the first of only two potential Republican pick ups of Democratic senate seats, the GOP has fallen short in New Jersey.

While the RNC has warned people about exit polls, it appears that Tom Kean will come up short in his race against appointed Democratic US Senator Bob Menendez. Exit polls point to Kean winning the white vote by only a point.

Get used to hearing the phrase "has this been any other year" throughout the night in explaining the defeat of strong Republican candidates against lousy Democratic opponents. The shoe fits in this race.

Dems Draw First Blood in KY: GOP's Northup Out

In the first real critical race of the night, it appears Anne Northup, a Republican congresswoman who has held on to her seat by the barest of margins, will go down to defeat, scoring the Democrats their first big House win of the night.

With 80% of the votes in, Northup is trailing by 4,000 ballots.

Considered a toss-up spot that Republicans hoped would go their way, the Northup loss is also the first loss outside of the GOP's "doomed dozen" defenses.

A win in Kentucky's 3rd district should give Democrats early good news towards their attempt to take the house.

Allen Leading in Virginia

US Senator George Allen has broken out of the neck and neck race with Democrat Jim Webb and now has a 2 point, 20k vote lead with 42% of the returns in. For most of the evening the two candidates were only hundreds of votes apart for most of the night.

Florida Gives GOP Hope

Republicans are leading in two important congressional races in Florida. Republican Vern Buchanan, hoping to succeed Katherine Harris, is leading 54%-46% with almost 40% precincts reporting.

In the race to succeed disgraced ex-Congressman Foley, Joe Negron is trailing by 3% in a race where voters must cast a ballot for Foley if they intend to support Negron. This district was considered beyond saving in the aftermath of Mark Foley's resignation.

Early KY, IN numbers

Anne Northup seems to be holding on with half the precincts in from her third KY district, though by her characteristic sliver margin. It's still anyone's race.

With only 2% of the precincts reporting in the Geoff Davis's 4th district, it's far too premature to read anything into his numbers. Though he is leading his Democratic opponent, Ken Lucas, the one troubling point is the 5% chunk the Libertarian candidate has drawn so far. If the races narrows between the Republican and Democrat, the Libertarian could play spoiler.

The Indiana races don't have too many precincts in, though Republican challenger Eric Dickerson in the 7th district has a lead of eight points with just over a quarter of the boxes in. The Republican candidate is not the former NFL star, though some voters might not realize it. The GOP was not supposed to win this race and it's far from a lock.

In the 9th district, the Republican incumbent, Mike Sodrel, is trailing by 8 points with only 5% in.

Let the number crunching begin!

The Early Call is on-line EARLY today with the first numbers coming in from Kentucky and Indiana (at least those parts of the Hossier state where judges did not unilaterally extend voting).

There are five critical hot seats in the western part of the "bloody" Ohio River Valley.

The first numbers in are in the 3rd District where Republican Anne Northup is trying to hold on in what is typically a hypercompetitive district. A loss for Northup would point to a negative national trend for the GOP though it would not be as potent of a sign as a loss would be in other parts of the country.

With 17% in, Northup is trailing her Democratic challenger 51% to 48%.

Stay tuned!

National, Louisiana Congressional Races To Be Decided Today

Will the Republicans keep control of either house of Congress?

Will Democratic Congressman Charlie Melancon win re-election in the primary?

And who will make the runoff in the Second Congressional District in the New Orleans area?

The Early Call will start its election night coverage at 7:00 PM CST, tracking selected bellwether races across the country and critical precicnts and parishes in state voting determining who the winners will be long before the networks.

Check back at 7 PM New Orleans time.

Early Call Dardenne, Heitmeier runoff Donelon wins

Based on the outstanding votes, unless Bossier comes through for mike francis heavy, it will be a runoff the runoff for secretary state will be between Dardenne and Heitmeier. Orleans is still out and Francis's poor performance there indicates he will lose heavily in the highly populated New Orleans area as Francis's rural vote has maxed out.

Donelon has been re-elected insurance commissioner, based upon the same criteria. And early trend was for Donelon with Cain's underperforming in southwest LA and lack of competitiveness in BR.

Early call, Dardenne and Heitmeier with a 3 percent margin between them. Donelon 52%.

9:00 Check In

secretary of state:

After polls showed Dardenne running third, results from absentees indicate that Dardenne has a slight edge over his Republican opponent Mike Francis. Dardenne polled strong in the New Orleans area. While Francis is running strong in his home parish of Acadia and neighboring Lafayette, losses in BR and the NO aream might be too much to make up in a competitive fight with Dardenne in north Louisiana, where the two ran neck and neck in Caddo and Rapides early voting.

commissioner of insurance: Jim Donelon appears headed for a win or leading into a runoff. Libertarian candidate Zaitoon has polled a solid number that might throw the heated contest into a second round.

Cain's poor showing in the early numbers in his southwest base shows a strong trend for Donelon.

As of right now: Dardenne with a slight lead with Francis and Heitmeier locked in three way contest.

Donelon to win in the first.

More in thirty minutes.

Welcome to "The Early Call"

Starting with the September 30th state primary, I will be offering my fellow political junkies with an early prediction based upon selected results on who will win the races that matter in Louisiana.

Come by at 9 PM (CST) on Saturday for the Secretary of State and Commissioner of Insurance calls!